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The social web is evolving constantly - trends begin and end at a rapid pace, generating fierce competition between services for users, traffic and more importantly - money.

Since the beginning of the web, the most popular social sites - beginning initially with stalwarts like Geocities until now, the current juggernaught - MySpace.

It's not hard to draw comparisons between the two, primarily due to the fact that essentially they are the same service, albeit with some new technology and buzzwords tacked on. However, the similarities seem to run much deeper. Take for example the main features of each service. Both applications made it easy (at the time) for new users to start creating content, were primarily supported by advertising and both companies were sold to huge corporations... Geocities to Yahoo! for $3.57 billion, MySpace to NEWS Corp for $580 million.

A little addenum: Geocities now has over 25 million users, 7 years past its 'prime'. According to alexa.com, Geocities.com is in the top 50 highest trafficked sites on the web.

At it's peak, Geocities was one of the most recognised sites on the Web, likewise - MySpace's popularity is unquestioned - they are reporting over 80 million members as of today.

Undeniably, the ability to easily create content for the web has been revolutionised by software developers over the past 4 years. Rather than spending hours learning HTML to create a page, making a new site is as simple as typing your content into a text box. Controls that were standard in desktop applications, such as toolbars, are now commonplace in many web applications.

The differences are stark - in 1999, a common Geocities user would have to learn how to add HTML, CSS and even Images to their sites. This was a huge barrier for entry for many non-tech oriented users.

MySpace (and it's Web 2.0 ilk) renamed and refined this concept - something you may have noticed throughout many Web 2.0 applications. Although the implementation is essentially the same, most people customise their MySpace page using 'codes', or pre-designed CSS templates. However, the difference this abstraction makes to a user is profound.

Many other concepts from Geocities-era services, such as Webrings have re-emerged with different names. Their 'fresh' Web 2.0 equivalents, simply called 'Groups' and 'Friends' represent basically the same data, however the process has again been refined, primarily through automation.

For example, the previously accepted method of showing your friends would be by adding a picture or link to your website manually (which requires learning some HTML) has been replaced by a simple two click operation.

The fall of a juggernaught

In 1998, Geocities was on top of it's game. With thousands of new members signing up daily, a huge amount of mindshare and the biggest online brand backing them.

The death blow for Geocities exponential growth is interesting because it seems history may be repeating. Previous Geocities users may recall some controversy regarding the Geocities Terms of Service not long after the Yahoo! buyout.

Similar questions are being asked regarding the new Terms of Service instituted after MySpace was acquired by NEWS Corp., although I'm not completely confident in their validity.

The reason I titled this post 'The post MySpace Web' is because after examining the context of the failure of Geocities, it's becomes apparant that the same thing may happen to MySpace - even soon.

Statistics don't lie - MySpace's growth is exceptional, with hundreds of thousands of new members signing up each day. However, many of the same issues that plagued Geocities until it's eventual demise post-2001 are beginning to come to light in much the same way for MySpace.

What's on the horizon

Although NEWS Corp's acquisition has not been met with such a furore, questions are starting to be asked, and the competition is heating up. Developers should be ecstatic - MySpace has familiarised millions of previously uninformed Internet users to what the web is capable of. It's these users that will be lining up in droves to experience the next killer social app.

The technology is available now. Particularly due to 3 things: metadata, the convergence of mobile and web, and finally, RSS - users can come to expect a much more personalised and fulfilling experience from the web. Already, many apps are implementing technology to estimate (with reasonable precision) a users location, enabling apps to provide context sensitive content.

Combining technology like metadata in the form of tags and RSS allows users to access up-to-the-minute, context sensitive information customised and delivered specifically for them - on any of their web-capable devices.

The important thing to remember however, is that content delivery is only the end of the puzzle - the driving force behind the web has, and always will be content creation.

The tools of the future

The past 5 years has given us new tools. At the most basic level, most apps now implement simple text editing GUIs, replacing any need to for a user to know HTML or CSS. What the future holds is in new media - Audio and Video.

The advent and popularisation of Podcasts (primarily thanks to Apple) have opened the floodgates for users looking to create audio content. Users can now record their own live radio show and broadcast it to millions of users with relative ease, however - the real problem is between the device and the distribution.

Much the same problem exists for video content. Thanks to broadband adoption and the widespread availability of recording devices, video is finally starting to hit the mainstream, with services such as YouTube and Google Video leading the front on the distribution end.

But is the integration between devices and these services? Users still need to jump through hoops to transfer media from their seperate devices, and then use a PC or Mac to distribute them.

The future

The post MySpace web is about integration: between software, the web, and the devices that drive them. Services like Rabble are beginning to hit home in this space by combining the best elements of the web now:

Content Delivery

• RSS Feeds
• Tagging (Metadata)
• Content Aggregators
• Localized positioning

Rabble is taking advantage of the fact that most users already have the perfect content creation device available to them 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. By leveraging mobile phones - with always-on GPRS or EDGE broadband Internet connections, video and photo cameras and of course, a built in Microphone, the new winner in the post MySpace Web will take all of the hard work out of creating new content for 'your space'.

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Source: Jake Tracey